Sunday, July 06, 2008
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Despite a few days of dramatic downside volatility, the first quarter of 2007 had a slight positive tone. The overall market returns for the quarter changed very little with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Dow was down 0.9%. Growth outperformed value on a relative basis but large, mid and small cap had very similar results. Utilities, transportation and natural resources were the best performing sectors. International stocks throughout the world performed better than the U.S. The Dow Global Index ex US was up 3.8%. Interest rates and money supply were little changed for the quarter. Sub-prime mortgage issues remain front and center. Many will seek to place blame for rising foreclosures on predatory lending practices. Hopefully, a government bailout will not become a serious option. The tightening of loan availability will hit the first-time buyers, slowing future home purchases and extending the soft residential housing market. Hedge funds, another media darling, will also get press time as the government talks about increased regulation. As we have discussed, hopefully, their general under-performance and high fees will lead to changes by market forces. We do not see any changes in interest rates in the near future. We expect gasoline to remain high throughout the summer. International unrest, refinery and formulation problems could very possibly lead to $4.00+ gasoline in certain markets. So far, consumers seem to have gotten used to higher prices and demand continues to be very strong. In the longer term, we remain concerned about slowing gains in productivity, rising wages, increased food prices, weak U.S. Dollar and continuing domestic and international deficits. Historically this combination has led to higher levels of inflation. We expect mergers and acquisitions to continue at a record pace. There continues to be a huge amount of private equity looking for companies with positive cash flow or significant real estate to take private and work their magic on. We expect foreign entities to play an ever growing role.

posted @ Thursday, May 03, 2007 4:26 PM by lmal

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